Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work

The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers, for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The first line uses static models and the second dynamic models. In this dynamic line most of the results are confined to models with a single state and a single control variable. In this paper we want to encourage the analysis of more general dynamic cases. To do so, the results in the dynamic line are extended from one-state and one-control finite horizon models to models with a pair of control variables. We then discuss some of the hurdles which must be surmounted for the results to be made more general and suggests some lines for further research. JEL classification: C61; E61     

科技基金奖使用中应遵循的原则

科技创新需要大批高科技人才。正确使用科技基金,是推动石油化工行业高科技人才培养工作的有效手段。以“侯祥麟石油加工科学技术基金奖”评奖使用情况为例,探讨科技基金奖的评奖使用问题。     

网络安全策略分析

网络安全策略是建立网络系统安全的指导原则。介绍了计算机网络当前所面临的安全威胁，对网络安全策略做了分析。     

有线电视宽带网边界路由系统安全技术研究

提出在当今有线电视宽带网络环境下,从构建安全的边界路由系统出发,研究在边界路由器上采取针对有线电视宽带网内部网络的报文过滤和针对路由系统本身的安全策略,并在某有线电视宽带网络中进行了典型应用,实践证明可以达到事半功倍的网络安全目的.     

Study on the Complexity of the Bullwhip Effect

Recent years have witnessed a rapid growth of interest in the study of the dynamic behavior of replenishment rules of bullwhip effect. We prove that bullwhip effect and butterfly effect share a same the self-oscillation amplifying mechanism that is the ordering decisions the supplier self-oscillation amplify the perturbations brought by the errors in the processing of retailers' demand information. This results as an explicit self-similar structure of the sensitivity of the system to the initial values duty to the nonlinear mechanism. In this paper, the causes process of the bullwhip effect is described as the internal nonlinear mechanism and study on the complexity of bullwhip effect for order-up-to policy under demand signal processing. The methodology is based on fractal and chaotic theory and allows important insights to be gained about the complexity behavior of bullwhip effect.     

The hydrogen economy, fuel cells, and electric cars

Hopes have again been raised about developing a “hydrogen economy”, in which hydrogen could be expected to replace oil and natural gas for most uses, including transportation and heating. It is again being claimed that hydrogen will be a widely available, clean, safe fuel. This article argues that such expectations are almost certainly illusory. Hydrogen, like electricity, is not an energy resource but an energy carrier. It takes more energy to extract hydrogen from water than burning the hydrogen can ever provide. There are also inevitable losses in storage, transmission, and final mechanical or heating applications. The question then turns on the efficiency—and safety—of the entire chain of conversion, from the energy source (fossil, solar, or other) to the final use. Moreover, energy sources (preferably renewable, for the long term) can be used for the direct creation of electricity, which can be introduced into the existing grid without requiring a vast investment in a new hydrogen distribution system. In addition, a hydrogen-based system would be unacceptably dangerous. This report will present a detailed technical and economic analysis of the problems with the proposed hydrogen economy and the advantages of some alternatives, principally electricity-based. A hypothetical case of what would be required for a hydrogen filling station serving the general public is closely examined.     

������Ȼ����̽ȡ�õ�ͻ��

鄂尔多斯盆地油气资源丰富 ,目前已累计探明天然气地质储量 1 18× 10 12 m3 ,成为了中国第一个天然气探明储量超过万亿立方米的大气区。长庆油田作为盆地勘探的主体 ,在 30余年的天然气勘探历程中 ,经历曲折和挫折 ,终于取得了令人瞩目的突破。靖边下古生界气田 (长庆气田 )的发现 ,即是解放思想 ,重新认识 ,改变构造成藏的认识 ,提出风化壳古地貌成藏认识的结果 ;榆林气田和苏里格气田的探明 ,则是解放思想 ,提出上古生界大面积含气背景下 ,存在高渗储层而坚持勘探的成果。天然气勘探取得突破是勘探者解放思想 ,对盆地特征重新认识 ,应用勘探新理论 ,改变勘探思路的结果。     

1978年前我国高校工农阶层子女入学优惠政策研究

从高校招生的演变历史看，中国在1978年以前对工农阶层子女实行高校入学优惠政策主要源于国家对这一阶层的特殊偏好而实行平均主义分配政策所致。国家通过报考资格政策、优先录取政策和免试推荐入学政策人为地大幅度提高了工农阶层子女在高校大学生中所占的比例。从公平视角看，这项政策不仅违背了公平原则，而且降低了人才选拔的质量。     

石油工程项目管理机制

为了妥善处理石油工程项目中的委托-代理关系,研究了委托-代理模型和石油工程项目管理中的激励约束机制,分析了激励机制、监督机制和选择机制在石油工程项目运行管理中的重要性.只有用有效的契约去激励技术服务公司,才能使服务公司在追求自身效益最大化的同时也为实现石油公司的最大效益而尽最大努力;只有对技术服务公司的作业实施监督,才能形成对技术服务公司的有效约束;采用激励性承包方式、实施综合性评标和组建工程项目动态联盟能够防止逆向选择.分析表明,在最优激励安排下,激励强度与项目面临的不确定性、承包商的边际成本及其风险规避系数负相关,与承包商的边际生产率正相关,还与其他可观测变量相关.在最优监督水平下,作业公司的边际生产率越高,边际成本越低,越容易监督,监督带来的边际收益越高.对于那些监督比较困难的项目,可以通过加强惩罚力度的方式弥补难以有效监督的不足.激励性承包方式可以减小逆向选择造成的危害,组建动态联盟可以进一步加强激励作用,降低道德风险,解决逆向选择问题.参8     

双逻辑访问控制改进模型的研究和实现

文章提出了针对“整合分级的RBAC访问控制”系统的改进模型。新模型充分发挥了基于角色和分级两套访问控制逻辑的优点,并通过引入XACML,有效地实现了策略管理和访问判决的标准化、统一化,在角色定义的基础上实现了两种逻辑的无缝整合。